In 2025, Trump’s trade policy continues to affect the global market. In early April, his move to impose a 145% tariff on China caused Bitcoin to plummet to $77,730 in a single day, and global stock markets suffered the biggest shock in nearly five years; and nine days later, the unexpected suspension of some tariffs for 90 days immediately reversed market sentiment, and Bitcoin rebounded 7% to $82,350 in a single day. XBIT (dex Exchange) strategists believe that Trump’s recent announcement of a trade agreement with the UK is seen as a potential positive for easing global frictions. Optimism quickly spread to the crypto field, and the scale of capital inflows in the crypto market hit a quarterly high.
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Fed Chairman Powell’s monetary policy statement also affected the market. After he denied the dismissal rumors on April 23, Bitcoin rebounded, but the tariff shock in early April caused the currency price to fall to a low of $81,500, highlighting the traction of the macro environment on the crypto market. Although Powell released a signal of interest rate cuts, he emphasized that the path will be “anchored to economic data”, suggesting that if inflation rebounds, the easing may be postponed. XBIT (dex Exchange) analysts pointed out that this “unresolved” policy expectation, together with trade frictions, forms a dual variable, pushing Bitcoin to a typical example of macro-sensitive assets – the inflation hedging logic of interest rate cut expectations and policy repetitiveness jointly shape market sentiment.
In May, Morgan Stanley announced that it will launch crypto trading services on the E*Trade platform in 2026, and institutions such as BlackRock will simultaneously promote the layout of ETF channels. In the past two weeks, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has absorbed $4.6 billion, and the asset management scale is close to the historical peak of 1.171 million BTC. However, analysts at XBIT (dex Exchange) stressed that institutional funds are not “monolithic”: the tariff crisis in mid-April caused a weekly outflow of $1 million from crypto ETFs, showing that traditional capital is highly sensitive to macro risks.
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XBIT chain data reveals deeper contradictions: Bitcoin’s capital exceeded $889 billion to set a record high, with daily net capital inflows exceeding $1 billion, the proportion of profitable transactions by short-term holders (STH) surged, and 3 million BTC escaped from the floating loss range. However, 254,000 BTC formed a “chip concentration zone” near the 155-day cost line. If this part of the stock accumulated at the end of 2024 is sold in a concentrated manner, it may cause violent fluctuations. At the same time, the 1-week and 1-month implied volatility of the options market fell to the lowest level since July 2024. XBIT historical data shows that low volatility is often accompanied by high volatility risks, forming a dangerous signal with the high supply density on the chain.
The current price is hovering around $95,000-this short-term holder cost center is becoming the focus of long-short game. If it falls below support, 3 million BTC that have just returned to profitability may trigger profit-taking selling pressure; and the delay in the Fed’s policy shift or the rise in geopolitical risks in the Middle East may become volatility catalysts. XBIT (dex Exchange) investors said: At this time, we should be more vigilant. The short-term profit-seeking nature of institutional funds and the sensitivity of high supply density on the chain may amplify market fragility.
The essence of this Bitcoin bull market is the result of the resonance between the digital gold attribute and the macro narrative: the safe-haven demand generated by trade protection, the inflation hedging logic of the monetary policy shift, and the liquidity injection of institutional entry constitute three driving forces. But the other side of the coin is that macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory pressure and competition from traditional safe-haven assets are always there.
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As an analyst from XBIT (dex Exchange) said: “The value of Bitcoin lies in giving individual sovereignty, not price fluctuations.” In the struggle between policy, capital and technology, it may be more important to remain rational than to chase the craze – a real bull market is never born in a carnival, but is tempered and formed after a crisis. High net worth investors often face compliance requirements around the world. XBIT ensures that investors’ assets comply with the financial regulatory laws and regulations of various countries through compliance measures such as KYC (customer identity verification) and AML (anti-money laundering). In addition, the regular audit reports and transparent asset management provided enable investors to understand their asset status at any time and ensure the compliance and transparency of asset management.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this press release is not a solicitation for investment, nor is it intended as investment advice, financial advice, or trading advice. It is strongly recommended you practice due diligence, including consultation with a professional financial advisor, before investing in or trading cryptocurrency and securities.